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Black swans come in both positive and negative flavors
There’s been plenty of talk over the past year about the “black swan” event of COVID-19.
Thanks to the work of Hajj Flemings, a friend and a CEO, I’ve long been thinking about how we use the word “black.” So I was intrigued by this letter to the Financial Times written last fall by a professor of finance, and the letter has stayed with me in the months since. The professor was urging us to stop saying “black” swan, due to its negative reinforcement of the word.
But then I discovered that when you dig deeper into the work of Nassim Taleb and his initial coining of the phrase, you notice that he never associated “black swan” with something negative. A black swan, to Taleb, is simply an unexpected happening. The metaphor is built upon the idea that white swans are more commonly found in nature. But every once in a while, there’s a black swan.
“In general, positive Black Swans take time to show their effect while negative ones happen very quickly — it is much easier and much faster to destroy than to build.” — Nassim Taleb
When you try to imagine positive black swans, it’s surprisingly difficult to do. As human beings we’re wired to survive. So we are really good at remembering the bad stuff that happens. But, when you…
